Posts Tagged ‘MU’

PTT Research Update & News

Posted: June 29, 2014 by mattmargolis24 in Uncategorized
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I just wanted to say hello to the Obscure Analyst family.  Some of you have decided to join my wallstreetforensics.com family and have signed up for my weekly Forensics Newsletter and I just wanted to thank you for the opportunity you have given me to share my investment research with on a regular basis.   I wanted to let everyone know that my first 4 weeks at PTT Research have gone extremely well and the response so far to my Forensics Newsletter product offering has been tremendous.  The knowledge sharing between the PTT Research analysts makes it easier for me to do my job well and will continue to give me even more insight into my favorite investments.  Some other exciting news is that PTT Research is in the process of developing my own WallStreetForensics.com App for mobile devices, which will allow my subscribers to view content and interact with each other through the PTT Forensics member forum from their mobile devices.

My inaugural PTT Research investment pick was up nearly 20% at its peak in just 3 weeks since I announced it to my Forensics Newsletter subscribers on June 5th and is still up well over 10% today.  I’ve provided subsequent updates to my subscribers regarding my inaugural investment pick as well as continued updates related to my other favorite investments.  I’ve also made some solid progress towards announcing my next investment pick to my paid subscribers.  Once my deep research is complete on my next investment pick it will go through my rigid evaluation process for approval before it can qualify as my next investment pick for my subscribers.  My goal is to share my research and analysis with my subscribers and present them with investment options that they can put their money behind, follow the story and watch their investments grow over time with significantly less inherent risk.  My subscribers receive the latest trends and information on my favorite investments including breaking news headlines that have not been written that they will receive weeks to months ahead of the general public so they can profit from it.

There is still plenty of time to get into the action but the window is closing quickly before my inaugural pick along with my very detailed analysis and strong buy recommendation is presented to the general public and my next investment is presented to my paid subscribers for the very first time.   I have also discovered some amazing new developments that even surprised me related to some of favorite investments.  If you have an investment in GTAT and have not thought long and hard about buying a Forensics Newsletter subscription you have missed and will continue to miss invaluable real-time information related to GT Advanced Technologies that you can profit from.

While the rest of the world waits for the iPhone 6 to arrive I have been hard at work researching, listing and writing about the next several significant developments that will be making headlines for GT Advanced Technologies as well as my “locked” up inaugural PTT Forensics investment pick.  Are you curious what you are missing?  

My Forensics Newsletter is currently being offered at a 10% discount for as long as you keep you subscription active.  Thanks again for your continued support and I hope to see more members of the Obscure Analyst family join me over at PTT Research in the near future to finish the ride we have started and to join me on several new investment journeys for years to come.

 

~ Matt Margolis

 

Some Cold Hard Facts: My individual portfolio of stocks is up 400% since the beginning of 2013. Over each of the last 18 months my portfolio has returned a positive return 89% of the time. That means my portfolio of stocks provided a positive monthly return 16 out of the last 18 months! My last stock pick is up over 10% in just over three weeks since I made the pick public to my paid subscribers. It’s not too late to get in on the fun as well as the latest headline grabbing scoop on my favorite investments and enjoy 10% off your subscription.

 

 

 

 

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Due to high demand my PTT Forensics Newsletter has been extended 24 hours! Special 20% off pricing for the life of your active subscription is now available until June 5th 12pm EST.

My first pick under the PTT Research Platform will be released at 3pm EST on Thursday June 5th. I’m very excited to share my in-depth, informative and unique research report with all of my paid subscribers tomorrow afternoon.

Simply head over to my landing page to sign up today while my Forensics Newsletter is on sale!

My “personal story” can be found here for more information about me.

Thanks again for everyone who has subscribed. I am very exited about our journey together.

Matt

My PTT Forensics Newsletter special pricing ends at 12pm EST Wednesday June 4th and my first pick and newsletter gets released on 3pm Thursday June 5th.

What is my news letter about?

My goal is to introduce 6-10 picks a year that I feel will double or potentially triple over the next 12 months. My focus is quality and not quantity. My goal as a stock research analyst is to gather as much information as humanly possible on each company I follow. My unique research style allows me to extract key tips from management over the past several years that have been laid out and build a roadmap of what is coming.

Some of you are followers of GTAT, which is by far one of my most exciting investments to date. GTAT is up nearly 90% in 2014 when I started coverage on it via Seeking Alpha at just over $9 per share. The reason why I don’t lose sleep when the stock falls 6% like it did yesterday for no “real” reason is because I have a roadmap of where GT is headed. I have an understanding of GT’s technology, GT’s industries, GT’s past and most importantly GT’s future plans including product applications and estimated timing. I think the true appreciation of what I can deliver will become completely evident as time passes. When Apple showcases the sapphire covered iPhone 6 later this year, some of you may be surprised, but I will not.

The sapphire cover screen was written years ago and is just playing out before our eyes today. I spoke with my friends and family over the summer and tried to convince as many people as I could to buy GTAT. I told my friends and family to buy as much GTAT as you can afford to hold for the next 3-4 years. I told them to buy this stock and put it in an envelop and open it up in a few years. I told my friends and family in August 2013 that GTAT was going to land a deal with Apple. Just 3 months later Apple and GTAT announced a contract, a sapphire facility in AZ and just around the corner Apple will introduce a sapphire covered iPhone 6.

My friends and family have nearly all doubled their original investment in GTAT. The only exceptions are those, who did not listen to me last summer, but decided to buy after Apple announced the deal with GTAT. I made sure to rub it in their face “Hey remember how I said GTAT would land Apple? Well they just did.”

The Apple announcement was a validation point of my ability to perform “Forensic” research on companies. I can tell you that NONE of my friends or family members have sold one share of GTAT since they first bought. However, nearly all of them have added to their initial investments because they fully trust my vision, my research and they know I don’t gamble with my money.

GTAT is much much much more than just Apple, but I wanted to share the significance of the Apple contract to give you some context. I’ve also been grilled by some seasoned professional investigative reporters and boutique investment firms over the last several months as research on GTAT received some national attention.

I decided several months ago that I couldn’t deal with any more with “the garbage” that other analysts produce and I became motivated to give a real research report so I took my “very very part-time” show to Seeking Alpha. PTT Research, led by Mark Gomes, recognized my ability and provided me with an opportunity to do my dream job. What is my dream job? Getting paid to make people money.

My friends and family have increased their net worths by hundreds of thousands of dollars from my advice in less than a year. I’ve received a few dinners in return as well as some very very happy customers. I honestly love making people money. I can only imagine what I can do for a much larger pool of investors.

My next pick is an investment. I spent hours and hours researching and building a base of knowledge. I’ve read the company comments from the past several years to understand the foundation that the company was built on. I’ve dug into the markets that the companies support including Key customer developments. My goal is to deliver the most comprehensive research report on each company I introduce. I want to educate my subscribers so they can become knowledgeable and experts in the companies they invest in.

Investing is personal and I want to deliver the personal touch. I want to deliver a unique experience to my subscribers. I want to be your “personal” analyst, who makes the traditional “Wall Street” analysts look bad. I’ve read the Wall Street reports and some are well researched and some are not. I can tell you for a fact that the Wall Street analysts, who cover GTAT are months to years behind the GTAT story. Not one analyst who covers GTAT even knew what Hyperion was before I introduced it to them. I personally feel that I am months to years ahead of GTAT’s written story. I want to be the spoiler for the company’s I cover in my research.

My goal is to be successful enough to work myself out of my day job. Everything I’ve put together on my Obscure Analyst blog was done on top of a full time job and a family a very very demanding kid filled environment at home (3 kids under 3 years old – 30 month old boy/girl twins and a 14 month old daughter). I love information and cutting through hours and hours of commentary to pull out clues, build roadmaps and get in front of companies that are ready for explosive growth and investment returns.

Thanks again for your continued support and I hope all of you join me in what I expect to be an exciting and rewarding journey for everyone who follows. I wanted to get personal with you tonight, because investing is personal and you need to put your money with someone you can trust. I feel like in running for office, but I hope you vote for me and go long with my PTT Research Forensics signup Link

Thanks again for your continued support and I’m looking forward to our continued journey together.

Matt – “The Obscure Analyst”

I’ve been working diligently on my PTT Premium Forensics Newsletter launch.  I’ve rolled up my sleeves (well not really) since I hate long sleeve shirts, but needless to say I am very deep in my research on my next great investment pick.  I’ve been gathering as much information as I can to understand everything that has happened over the last few years as well as digging into the “data” on this company.  The information and data points will give me context of where this company came from, where it is going as well as the various “treats” investors should be expecting over the remainder of the year and into the future.

My favorite part of researching is learning.  My second favorite part of researching is sharing.  My final favorite part of researching is sharing what I learned with people, who want to profit from it.  Every time I dig into my research it takes me places I didn’t know existed so my end product is typically more in depth than my own expectations. I am very excited to share my next great investment pick with my premium PTT Research Forensics Newsletter subscribers on June 2nd!

 

 

Disclosure: My premium PTT Research Forensics Newsletter is scheduled to launch on June 2nd. The premium paid service option will grant my paid subscribers exclusive content weeks before my analysis is published on Seeking Alpha, the Obscure Analyst blog or any other website.  Another advantage of PTT is the subscriber Forum that allows sharing of ideas and analyst Q&A. Did you know, that subscription based investment newsletter are typically tax-deductible?

Micron delivered their Q2 2014 results today and also reaffirmed that they will begin to ramp up volume production of their DDR4 memory chips during the quarter ending May 2014.  Additionally, Micron also reminded investors they received a $250m deposit from a customer in Q1 2014 associated with a long-term DRAM supply agreement.  Micron’s CEO and CFO both indicated that DRAM inventory is currently “very tight” and it seems more clear that Apple made the $250m deposit was made to secure a multiyear supply of DRAM memory chips that will be very difficult for customers to get their hands on.

I recently put together substantial evidence that Apple was going to showcase Micron’s LPDDR4 DRAM memory across Apple’s 2014 Hardware portfolio.  The comments today from Micron’s management confirmed they will begin to ramp up production of their DDR4 chip by the end of May.  The ramp timing  continues to support my thesis that the DDR4 chip will make its way into the iPhone 6 that will begin to be manufactured in May according to recent reports.  My previous conclusion is below:

Conclusion – Micron’s LPDDR4 DRAM Memory will Arrive on Apple’s Hardware in 2014

Apple is a current DRAM customer of Micron Technology, having last used Micron’s LPDDR3 DRAM memory in 2013.  Micron presented detailed benefits and product highlights regarding their LPDDR4 DRAM Memory technology almost a year ago.  Furthermore, just yesterday Micron’s Vice President of Wireless Solutions Marketing published an article highlighting the benefits of Micron’s next generation DRAM LPDDR4, which tells me this technology is ready for the big show.   Lastly, Micron received a mystery payment of $250m from one customer that was reported during their Q1 2014 conference call and their 10-Q indicates that the payment was  “for product to be supplied through September 2016″.

Apple is in an arm’s race to improve the performance of their mobile, tablet and ultrabook devices and improve overall battery life.   There appears to be little doubt that Apple is going to be showing off Micron’s LPDDR4 DRAM memory across their 2014 iPhones, Macbook and Tablets.  You can take my word for it that Apple users are going to love how “lightning quick” the 2014 devices will be compared to the 2013 devices.

 

Full Disclosure: I am long Micron and have no plans to buy or sell any holdings in the next 72 hours.

Micron beats Q2 top and bottom line estimates

Posted: April 3, 2014 by mattmargolis24 in Micron Technology
Tags: , ,

Micron Technology beat revenue consensus by $113m and EPS (non-GAAP) by 11 cents per share. Share have ranged from flat to up $1.15 after hours. The stock closed at $24.00 during the regular session.

<Micron Technology, Inc., Reports Results for the Second Quarter of Fiscal 2014

BOISE, Idaho, April 3, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Micron Technology, Inc., ( Nasdaq:MU) today announced results of operations for its second quarter of fiscal 2014, which ended February 27, 2014. Revenues in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 were $4.11 billion and were 2 percent higher compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2014 and 98 percent higher compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2013.

GAAP Income and Per Share Data — On a GAAP(1) basis, net income attributable to Micron shareholders in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 was $731 million, or $0.61 per diluted share, compared to net income of $358 million, or $0.30 per diluted share, in the first quarter of fiscal 2014 and a net loss of ($286) million, or ($0.28) per diluted share, in the second quarter of fiscal 2013.

Non-GAAP Income and Per Share Data — On a non-GAAP(2) basis, net income attributable to Micron shareholders in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 was $ 989 million, or $0.85 per diluted share, compared to net income of $881 million, or $0.77 per diluted share, in the first quarter of fiscal 2014. For a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results, see the accompanying financial tables and footnotes.

Revenues from sales of Trade NAND Flash products were 11 percent higher in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2014 primarily due to a 35 percent increase in sales volume offset by an 18 percent decrease in average selling prices. Revenues from sales of DRAM products were essentially unchanged in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2014 as both sales volumes and average selling prices remained stable. The company's overall consolidated gross margin was 34 percent in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 compared to 32 percent in the first quarter of fiscal 2014 as a result of a higher DRAM gross margin.

Cash flows from operations for the second quarter of fiscal 2014 were $1.39 billion, while investments in capital expenditures were $565 million. The company ended the second fiscal quarter with cash and marketable investments of $5.06 billion.

by Matt Margolis

During Micron’s first quarter of 2014 they announced that, “Operating cash flows in the first quarter of 2014 also benefited by approximately $250 million of receipts from a customer for product to be supplied through September 2016″.  Micron closed on their purchase of memory maker Elpida on July 31, 2013.  The name Elpida should be familiar to those of you who use Apple devices.  In 2012, Apple reportedly placed a massive order that consumed over half of Elpida’s memory chip production which dealt a significant blow to Samsung’s share prices and they were quick to deny the story.   However, as it turned out Samsung was removed from Apple’s list of DRAM and NAND memory chip suppliers.

Apple Hardware Teardowns confirm Elpida DRAM in 2013

Last September a teardown  by Techinsights of Apple’s iPhone 5s and iPad Air revealed that Elpida’s DRAM Memory LPDDR3 memory was being used on the device.    Ifixit’s teardown of the MacBook Air in June also confirmed the use of Elpida’s DRAM Memory LPDDR3.  Precedent has been set and confirmed that Apple is using Elpida’s DRAM memory across their most recent products released in 2013 that continue to be produced in 2014.

Elpida Stakes Comeback on Energy-efficient Chips (Elpida is now owned by Micron Technology)

KEN SAKAKIBARA of Nikkei Asian Review posted an article in January titled, ” Elpida stakes comeback on energy-efficient chips for mobile devices,” which included some colorful input from Micron’s CEO Mark Duncan.    The Nikkei Asian Review provided the following;

 

Micron CEO Mark Duncan has said the Japanese unit will become involved in Micron’s overall technology development.

Duncan has pledged to allocate half of the capital budget to DRAM operations in Japan and Taiwan. This will mark Elpida’s first significant capital investment in three years.

Duncan has said that the plan is to make the Hiroshima plant a DRAM production center that is on the leading edge of chip-making technology.

 

LPDDR4 DRAM Memory – Why it’s Awesome for Apple Gadget Lovers

Micron highlighted their LPDDR4 DRAM memory technology presentation almost a year ago at a Mobile Forum.  Some of the key targets of DRAM mobile power requirements include:

Screenshot - 4_1_2014 , 10_17_00 PM

  • Tablets – 10 hours active with a 11.5 Ah battery
  • Phones – 8 hours active with a 1.4 Ah battery
  • Phones are targeting 10+ days of standby
  • Tablets in “connected standby” targeting 2+ weeks

Another issue plaguing the Mobile power efficiency is heat sink, “Heat spreaders are being used to move heat to the case, away from the memory/processor,” this would explain give another reason why Apple has pursued sapphire screens with GT Advanced Technologies for their ultra hard makeup and their ability to dissipate heat away from the processor.

Screenshot - 4_1_2014 , 10_40_40 PM

Other key benefits of Micron’s LPDDR4 include:

  • Power Neutrality
  • 2x Bandwidth Performance (performance improvement)
  • Low pin count (easy to connect)
  • Low cost (margin preservation!)

Screenshot - 4_1_2014 , 10_40_40 PM

 

Wirelessnewsweek just published an article on DDR4 memory, titled ” Advancing Mobile Solutions With Low-Power DDR4,” what is even more interesting is that the Author is Reynette Au, who is Vice President of Wireless Solutions Marketing at Micron Technology.  Some key points from Au’s article are below:

Many of these features are enabled by highly integrated SoCs that provide greater computing capabilities matched with peripherals like image processors, modems, and Wi-Fi transceivers. This integration has led to a corresponding increase in demand on memory resources and a need for an architecture that can support much higher bandwidth.

Memory bandwidth is not a new problem for mobile devices. Since the introduction of the iPhone, the industry has responded with an evolutionary transition from 2.6 GB/s LPDDR1, to 8.5 GB/s LPDDR2, to 17 GB/s LPDDR3, the technology currently is powering today’s high-end devices in volume production. DRAM bandwidth has roughly doubled with each generation to keep pace with demand.

The next generation of low-power DRAM (LPDRAM)—also known as LPDDR4—addresses these constraints by doubling the bandwidth of LPDDR3 while maintaining power neutrality. For example, LPDDR4 targets 34 GB/s of total bandwidth for a x64 memory subsystem, doubling the bandwidth target from LPDDR3. This bandwidth is achieved by moving to a dual-channel architecture with eight banks per channel—providing more responders for higher efficiency and lower latency—and by using a new high-speed I/O interface capable of up to 4.267 Gb/s.

Conclusion – Micron’s LPDDR4 DRAM Memory will Arrive on Apple’s Hardware in 2014

Apple is a current DRAM customer of Micron Technology, having last used Micron’s LPDDR3 DRAM memory in 2013.  Micron presented detailed benefits and product highlights regarding their LPDDR4 DRAM Memory technology almost a year ago.  Furthermore, just yesterday Micron’s Vice President of Wireless Solutions Marketing published an article highlighting the benefits of Micron’s next generation DRAM LPDDR4, which tells me this technology is ready for the big show.   Lastly, Micron received a mystery payment of $250m from one customer that was reported during their Q1 2014 conference call and their 10-Q indicates that the payment was  “for product to be supplied through September 2016”.

Apple is in an arm’s race to improve the performance of their mobile, tablet and ultrabook devices and improve overall battery life.   There appears to be little doubt that Apple is going to be showing off Micron’s LPDDR4 DRAM memory across their 2014 iPhones, Macbook and Tablets.  You can take my word for it that Apple users are going to love how “lightning quick” the 2014 devices will be compared to the 2013 devices.

Update Micron announced that it was ramping up production of its DDR4 early this morning. This ramp up aligns with other recent Apple production ramp up announcements.

Full Disclosure: I am long Micron Technology and GT Advanced Technologies and have no plans to buy or sell any holdings in the next 72 hours

 

by Matt Margolis

If anyone follows the share price of Micron Technology (MU) I’m sure your first thought might be, “this stock already doubled and almost tripled over the last 12 months.”  The answer is yes the Micron has gone from $9.23 on April 1, 2013 to $23.66  as of today’s close on March 31, 2014 (a whopping increase of 2.56x or 156% over the last 12 months).    I’m going to argue that the supply and demand situation along with the macro economic environment driving the memory industry will drive Micron’s share price up another 156% over the next 12 months.  I am officially initiating coverage on Micron and issuing a $61 – 12 month price target.

 

What is DRAM?

One of the main types of memory that Micron specializes in is Dynamic random-access memory (DRAM).  DRAM is a type of random access memory that stores each bit of data in a separate capacitor within an integrated circuit. Since real capacitors leak charge, the information eventually fades unless the capacitor charge is refreshed periodically. Because of this refresh requirement, it is a dynamic memory as opposed to SRAM and other static memory.  The main memory (the “RAM”) in personal computers is Dynamic RAM (DRAM), as is the “RAM” of home game consoles (PlayStation, Xbox 360 and Wii), laptop, notebook and workstation computers.

 

DRAM Consumption

DRAM consumption is driven by Mobile (35%) of the market and Servers (20%) of the DRAM market.  Mobile DRAM consumption will grow at a 60-70% YOY clip in 2014 and server consumption will increase about 40% YOY.   The next significant piece of DRAM consumption is Networking, which represents approximately 10% of the marketplace and that is growing 30-35% YOY driven by LTE build outs in China.  The last piece of the DRAM market is PC’s and that area is growing at a 5% YOY rate at best.  I have only been following Micron for the last 4 years but I have very excited about how Micron is and will continue to be a very big winner in the smartphone revolution that is still in its infancy.

DRAM, the Past, the Present and the Future

Micron’s DRAM business used to be tied to PC sales and PC’s have dominated the DRAM industry consumption since the 1980s but by 2015 Tablets and Mobile devices are expected to consume more DRAM than PCs.  If you don’t this has been a remarkable shift in consumption, then you read to check out the chart below courtesy of IHS Technology.

Screenshot - 3_31_2014 , 8_35_34 PM

Screenshot - 3_31_2014 , 10_10_08 PM

Global mobile smartphone sales just surpassed non-smartphone sales in 2013 with a total market size of 1.8B handsets sold.  A new report published today from IGR estimates that mobile sales will rise from 1.8B to 2.6B units by 2018 and smartphone sales will account for 85% of 2.2B units sold in 2018 up from 0.9B or just over 50% of mobile units sold in 2013, representing an increase of 1.3B annual smartphone unit sales by 2018.  Smartphone sales are forecasted to increase from 900m in 2013 to 2.2B in 2018 representing an annual growth rate of 20%.  On top of the unit growth rate, the amount of DRAM memory bits consumed in smartphones and tablets will continue to increase as mobile devices and tablets become more powerful and continue to perform a larger portion of our computing tasks each day.

The mobile DRAM marketplace is currently dominated by only 3 players, Samsung (48.9%), Hynix (25.9%) and Micron (23%) during Q4 2013.  Samsung is mostly a supplier to themselves and Micron through their acquisition of Elpida has Apple as a mobile customer.  Micron was the #4 player in the DRAM space but after they acquired Elpida for pennies on the dollar they jumped #3 and are currently in a horse race with Hynix for the #2 spot.

Conclusion

Micron’s DRAM revenue accounted for 50% of Micron’s record $4,042 million of sales recorded in Q4 2013.    The DRAM marketplace is composed of just 3 significant players and the supply and demand equation is now in equilibrium.  The 20% forecasted growth rate of smartphone sales through 2018 will continue to drive mobile DRAM bit growth even as the PC market continues to survive on little to no growth for the foreseeable future.   Micron and the memory space may have been exposed to significant price fluctuation but in a market with only 3 major players and a significantly high cost of capital to enter the markets place, the supply and demand picture looks safe and so does Micron’s profits for the foreseeable future.  Wall street analysts average earnings estimate is $2.98 per share in 2014 with a low estimate of $2.20 and a high estimate of $3.44.  Looking ahead to 2015, the average wall street analyst estimate is $2.96 with a low estimate of $1.40 and a high estimate of $3.88.

Micron reported earnings of $0.77 per share in their Q1 2014 quarter against the average wall street estimate of $0.43 per share meaning Micron exceeded analyst estimates by $0.34 or 79%.  The wall street analysts still think Micron is supplying memory to the PC marketplace and they just don’t understand the smartphone and tablet revolution that will drive Micron sales and earnings for the next 5 plus years!

Shares of Micron were up 8% today and today’s action is just the beginning of a terrific finish to 2014 for shares of Micron.  The analysts are expecting Micron to earn $0.74 in Q2 2014 when they report on Thursday after the closing bell, but investors should expect another significant beat to Micron and additional price target increases from wall street.  Micron should be valued at 15-20x 2015 earnings estimate of $2.98 per share, which would value the company at $45-60 today.  I feel confident Micron will earn over $4.00 a share in 2014 and will challenge $5.00 per share in 2015.  The Micron analysts are afraid to get in front of this memory earnings freight train, but the pure supply and demand economics along with macro economics surrounding smartphone conversions from non-smartphone mobile devices, will continue to fuel Micron’s earnings and share price for years to come.  My recommendation is to buy Micron in advance of their Q2 2014 earnings announcement Thursday after the closing bell and to hold this volatile security for the next 12 months and enjoy a 165% return alongside me.

 

Full Disclosure: I am long MU and have no plans to buy or sell any holdings in the next 12 months