Posts Tagged ‘iphone 6’

iPhone 6 Sapphire Cover Screens Confirmation May be Imminent 4.7″ iPhone 6 Cover Screens Are In Circulation. Sapphire Confirmation May be imminent and Meyers Burger Receives a Follow-Up Slicing Order From An Existing Customer

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Professional leaker Sonny Dickson is back at it again. Dickson just released his official photo of Apple’s 4.7″ and 5.5″ iPhone 6 hours ago. In 2013 Dickson released his official photos of the iPhone 5s and 5c just a few weeks prior to Apple’s official launch date in September.

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Earlier this week Taiwanese celebrity Jimmy Lin showed up in the news for another annual iPhone photo leak back. Lin this time around is reportedly leaking images of the iPhone 6. Jimmy Lin most notably leaked accurate images of the iPhone 5c in 2013 in mid August, which was one month before the 5c officially launched.

The pace of iPhone 6 photo leaks has picked up steam over the last week. Do the recent leaks indicate that the iPhone 6 launch is just the around the corner? If recent history provides any sort of track record the iPhone 6 launch might be just around the corner.

Looking to profit from the iPhone 6 launch as well as the latest trends in technology? Check out my in-depth coverage on my top investment picks at PTT Research Forensics Newsletter and be the first to know my next move before everyone else!

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Leaked iPhone 6 images surface from Taiwan

Posted: June 13, 2014 by mattmargolis24 in Uncategorized
Tags: , ,

Taiwanese celebrity Jimmy Lin is back at it again. This time around he is reportedly leaking images of the iPhone 6. Jimmy Lin most notably leaked accurate images of the iPhone 5c in 2013 in mid August, which was one month before the 5c officially launched.

The images show what is being touted as the iPhone 6 alongside the iPhone 5S.

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Looking to profit from the latest trends in technology? Check out my in-depth coverage on my top investment picks at PTT Research Forensics Newsletter and be the first to know my next move before everyone else!

Barron’s released some information from Brian White of Cantor Fitzgerald.

White was most recently in the news regarding his belief that sapphire was seen in some iWatch models and that the iPhone 6 would feature sapphire glass.

White’s supply chain check indicates, “that initial production of certain “iWatch” components is scheduled to begin later this month and there are plans for a sharp acceleration into fall.” The report also indicated that the iWatch will likely arrive along side the iPhone 6 in September. White estimates the iWatch will be priced between $199-$299 for entry level device.

White believes the first iteration of the iWatch is more of a companion device.

Since our research suggests the first iteration of the “iWatch” is more of a companion device, and thus requires a connection to an iPhone, we believe unveiling the two new devices at the same time makes sense.

White also indicated that the 5.5 inch iPhone 6 is likely to arrive this fall.

Furthermore, as we make our way through Computex, our research is uncovering more evidence that the 5.5-inch iPhone 6 will launch this fall.

Related Stories:

iWatch Touch Panel Provider TPK Almost Guarantees iWatch will Feature Sapphire

Full Disclosure: I am long GTAT

Apple’s keynote WWDC delivery from CEO Tim Cook is just over 24 hours away. The iPhone 6 is still likely a month or more away from making it’s well anticipated arrival. Foxconn is expected to begin assembling the iPhone 6 in July, which means the earliest the device may arrive in customer hands is July at this point.

Apple has made some waves recently regarding the company’s pipeline of products. Apple VP Eddie Cue recently said that, “later this year, we’ve got the best product pipeline that I’ve seen in my 25 years at Apple”. The center of Apple’s product pipeline is Apple’s iPhone 6, which boasted sales of over 150m units in 2013. However, Apple iPhone sales in 2013 failed to keep up with the smartphone industry growth rate. IDC reported that in 2013, “Apple had the lowest year-on-year increase of all the leading vendors,” yes even LG had a larger year-on-year increase than Apple!

Although, Apple’s iPhone 6 may not be ready for distribution until July at the earliest I believe 2014 is the year Apple needs to show off the device whether or not it will be ready for sale in just 2 weeks. Apple historically introduces its next generation iPhone and then follows it up with a product launch within 2 weeks.

Apple’s smartphone market share is well under 20% and even though introducing a new iPhone 6 a month or more ahead of it’s expected sale date may hurt Apple sales, it’s the right thing to do. If Apple wants to gain additional market share they need to demonstrate that the company’s iPhone 6 is awesome enough for Samsung loyalists to switch over to Apple. Samsung just officially announced the Galaxy S5 Active on Thursday with mobile carrier AT&T. LG just announced its latest LG G3 smartphone, which will be launching in various countries over the next several weeks.

Conclusion

The best way for Apple to rain on Samsung and LG’s smartphone sales parade is by showcasing the iPhone 6 on Monday during the WWDC. If Apple’s 2014 product pipeline is truly the “best pipeline the company has had over the last 25 years,” then it is time for Apple put up or shut up on Monday. If Apple’s upcoming iPhone 6 is “truly epic” it should create a the perfect storm to rain on Samsung and LG’s product launch sales parade even if the iPhone 6 won’t show up in consumer hands for another month or more.

Apple can win significant smartphone market share right now by forcing consumers to rethink what is cool and what is innovative in the smartphone marketplace. If Apple delivers an “epic” iPhone 6 product during Monday’s WWDC, it may hurt iPhone 5s/5c sales, but at the same time it would deliver a tremendous amount of damage to the other 80% of the smartphone handset marketplace.

A preemptive strike by Apple on Monday during the WWDC would be more rewarding for Apple in the long term versus being predictable and announcing the iPhone 6 just weeks before the product launches, which is consistent with every previous iPhone launch cycle. Apple needs to disrupt consumer behavior and force the remaining 80%+ of smartphone consumers to delay their smartphone purchases and wait for Apple’s iPhone 6 device to go on sale. The only way to disrupt consumer behavior and significantly increase smartphone market share is by way of an “epic” iPhone 6 announcement during tomorrow’s WWDC keynote speech scheduled for 1pm EST.

Full Disclosure: I have no position in AAPL but I am long Apple’s newest sapphire supplier GTAT.

Reminder: My PTT Research Forensics Newsletter that is scheduled to be published on Thursday June 5th at 3pm EST.

My Forensics Newsletter pricing is now available and a special 20% launch discount (for the first 48 hours) will be available when my Forensics Newsletter subscription goes on sale on Monday June 2nd at 12pm EST.

If you were wondering what my next pick will be. Here is my sneak peek summary:

My next pick is a company that is built on top of a strong foundation of intellectual property. My analysis of the company’s data and public comments indicate that a “major ramp” in future sales is just getting underway. The company’s C-suite is in the process of scaling up the business and preparing to manage a much larger and more complex company. The company has quietly created an integrated eco-system comprised of software and hardware that continues to extend its competitive edge over its largest competitors. The industry that the company primarily supports is in the early stages of what is expected to be an explosive and long-term growth cycle.

 

 

Update: Video proven likely to be a clever prank. The good news is less than 48 hours until the opening up the WWDC14 to find out what is really on tap from Apple.

Apple’s WWDC is set to kickoff on Monday June 2nd at 1pm EST and nowhereelse.fr just published a video that captures what appears to be a practice run of the WWDC14 slide show inside the Moscone Center in San Francisco.  I grabbed the 3 images that were available from the slide show video presentation and it certainly looks like the iPhone 6.

 

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The rear of the device from the slide show video looks nearly identical to images of the rear shell that were released from http://www.macfixit.com.au just 2 days ago.

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Monday’s WWDC may just be a bit more exciting than most people thought if Apple is going to surprise nearly everyone with the release of the iPhone 6.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The city is Mesa is set to delegate the operational rights of the Mesa sapphire plant sub zone to GTAT on Monday. Up to this point the city of a Mesa has acted as the grantee of the Mesa sapphire sub zone operations under approval that was granted in March 2014. According to the FTZ, the grantee (city of Mesa) has maintained the greatest direct control over the sapphire plant zone operations. The grantee also directly bears responsibility and Customs liability for the Zone’s operation.

GT as soon as Monday June 2nd may take direct control over the sapphire plant zone operations as well as direct responsibility for FTZ Customs liability. On May 20th GT posted a new job titled “Foreign Trade Zone administrator” to “Provide FTZ and import/export compliance training for all personnel working within the zone and at certain other locations”.

GT’s November SEC filing indicated that the company expected to receive the final prepayment in April. Stephen Chin of UBS, in his recent report published earlier this week indicated that the delayed receipt of the final Apple prepayment might be due to significantly more furnaces being installed at the Mesa facility versus his original estimates.

We believe one of the reasons that GT has not received its 4th prepayment from Apple yet (originally estimated the 4th and final would be paid by end of last month) is that there could be around 2,000 furnaces being installed (about 30% more than we originally estimated)

The transfer of the sub zone operations from the grantee (city of Mesa) to GT Advanced Technology on Monday June 2nd might be the final hurdle required before Apple releases the final prepayment of $138 million to GT Advanced. The final prepayment from Apple could be received as early as next week. The Mesa plant is expected to be completed in June.

Next week is setting up to be a very interesting week for GT Advanced Technologies.

Apple’s WWDC begins on Monday June 2nd.

GT is expected to be granted operator status over the Mesa sapphire operations sub zone on June 2nd.

GT’s annual stockholder meeting is scheduled on June 4th.

The final prepayment of $138 million from Apple could be received by GT as soon as next week.

Selecting an Operator (FTZ Website)

For businesses to use the Zone, save money, and expand or keep their operations in the community, the Zone must be fully operational.

Upon a grant of authority, the Grantee must address the processes of administration and operation of the Zone.

Some Foreign-Trade Zone Grantees elect to operate their General Purpose Zone themselves. In doing so, the Grantee maintains the greatest direct control over Zone operations, yet also directly bears responsibility and Customs liability for the Zone’s operation.

Disclosure: I am long GTAT

 

Reminder: My PTT Research Forensics Newsletter that is scheduled to be published on Thursday June 5th at 3pm EST.

My Forensics Newsletter pricing is now available and a special 20% launch discount (for the first 48 hours) will be available when my Forensics Newsletter subscription goes on sale on Monday June 2nd at 12pm EST.

If you were wondering what my next pick will be. Here is my sneak peek summary:

My next pick is a company that is built on top of a strong foundation of intellectual property. My analysis of the company’s data and public comments indicate that a “major ramp” in future sales is just getting underway. The company’s C-suite is in the process of scaling up the business and preparing to manage a much larger and more complex company. The company has quietly created an integrated eco-system comprised of software and hardware that continues to extend its competitive edge over its largest competitors. The industry that the company primarily supports is in the early stages of what is expected to be an explosive and long-term growth cycle.

 

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CNBC is reporting that Brian Blair of Rosenblatt Securities May 27th report on the Asia supply chain spotted iWatch models with sapphire screens.

Additionally, the same report said the upcoming iPhone 6 would use sapphire glass from GT Advanced.

On May 23, 2014 leaked images surfaced from nowhereelse.fr of what appears to be Apple’s iPhone 6 LED backlight.Image

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The earliest leaked iPhone 5s backlight images that I could find were leaked on September 7th, 2013 just 3 days before the iPhone 5s invite went out.   The iPhone 5s backlight images were also leaked first by nowhereelse.fr.

In other news Vodaphone just slashed the price of the iPhone 5c on Friday. Target just dropped the price of the gold iPhone 5s to just $119.99 from $199.99 with a 2 year contract.    Walmart was the first to offer aggressive reduced pricing of the iPhone 5s to $119.99 back in March.  Radioshack in April reduced the price of the iPhone 5s to just $99.99 and the price remains intact today.

The wave of iPhone 5s price cuts fall line very closely with an International Business Times article from January, which indicated that Apple will slash the price of 5s by $100 in May 2014.  The IBT article also mentioned a possibility of a May and September iPhone 6 release schedule based on news picked from South Korea.

Conclusion

The wave of iPhone 5s price cuts and the most recent leaked image of the iPhone 6 backlight indicates that production is underway and release of Apple’s iPhone 6 could come anytime.  At this point I’m not expecting a iPhone 6 release at Apple’s WWDC that begins on June 2nd, but every data point seems to indicate that the iPhone 6 release is coming before September.

 

 

My Previous Articles on related to the iPhone 6 release date

https://margolismatt.com/2014/04/20/a-review-of-apples-supply-chain-management-indicates-a-june-iphone-6-release-is-likely/

https://margolismatt.com/2014/04/21/iphone-5s-price-slashing-activity-is-pointing-towards-a-june-iphone-6-arrival/

https://margolismatt.com/2014/04/27/apples-2014-wwdc-solar-charging-products-and-better-film/

https://margolismatt.com/2014/05/11/several-apple-analysts-believe-the-iphone-6-will-arive-as-early-as-june/

 

Disclosure: My premium PTT Research Forensics Newsletter is scheduled to launch on June 2nd. The premium paid service option will grant my paid subscribers exclusive content weeks before my analysis is published on Seeking Alpha, the Obscure Analyst blog or any other website.  Another advantage of PTT is the subscriber Forum that allows sharing of ideas and analyst Q&A. Did you know, that subscription based investment newsletter are typically tax-deductible?

 

Additional Disclosure: I am long GTAT (Apple’s newest Sapphire supplier)

 

by Matt Margolis

I’ve been reading the feedback I received from several of my loyal followers as well as the various message board comments regarding sapphire cover screens, Apple’s iPhone 6 release date,  and Apple’s WWDC that is set to kickoff on June 2nd.  Listed below some of the questions I have recently received.

  • When will Apple launch the iPhone 6?
  • Will the iPhone 6 include a sapphire cover screen?
  • Will a sapphire cover screen only show up on the high-end 5.5″  iPhone 6?
  • Will sapphire be used on the iWatch?

I believe the answers to all of these questions are very important but the way all of GTAT’s shareholders are going to make some serious money is going to come down to analyst analytics.  I’m sure you are wondering what am I saying?  Well to be honest there are a handful of key data drivers that can turn Wall Street’s base case Apple annual revenue from $1 billion annually to of $2 billion in 2015 for JUST APPLE!  Just for the record, the Obscure Analyst is estimating GT’s revenue  from Apple at $2.2 billion for 2015.

The immediate impact on GTAT’s share price and Wall Street estimates once Apple announces sapphire cover screens on the iPhone 6 comes down to analyst analytics.

I’ve taken the last few days to digest some information to help everyone understand what the next impact will be to GTAT’s share price and valuation.  Goldman Sachs indicated they anticipate Apple to sell 203 million iPhone units in 2015, which under Goldman’s bull case would lead to $2b and $2.00 EPS for GTAT in 2015.

It is also important to note that even though bloggers and various naysayers indicate that the iWatch will carry sapphire cover screens first, there is $0 of revenue for the iWatch assumed in any of the Wall Street estimates (for those who gave detail). I repeat there is $0 of revenue built into analyst forecast’s for sapphire iWatch cover screens for 2014, 2015 and 2016.  The reason why Wall Street has $0 of revenue forecasted for the iWatch is directly related to the estimated full capacity of the Mesa, AZ sapphire plant.

 

Mesa, AZ Sapphire Plant Capacity: Goldman Sachs, Dougherty & Company & The Obscure Analyst

I would first off like to tip my cap off to Dougherty & Company for producing one of the best Wall Street research reports I have seen on GTAT.  My very high-grade has nothing to do with the $29 PT the company gave GTAT, but the breadth of understanding Dougherty demonstrated through its analysis of GT’s business.

The key data points that determine the Mesa, AZ sapphire plant capacity in terms of millions of sapphire cover screens are listed below:

    • Boule Size
    • Number of ASF Growth Furnaces
    • Days to Grow a Boule
    • Useable Boule %
    • Kerf Loss %
    • Yield Loss %
    • Cover Screen Height
    • Cover Screen Length
    • Cover Screen Thickness
    • Boule Form (Round versus Rectangle)

I’ve taken the base case from each analyst (Goldman, Dougherty and Obscure) and put them side by side.  I’ve also modified some of the key data points and ran three different scenarios so everyone can see how much the capacity calculations can swing.

Base Case Key Differences:

  • Screen Thickness: Goldman is modeling 1mm, Dougherty has the thinnest screen thickness model at only 0.55mm thick and Obscure is modeling 0.65mm.
  • Boule Size: Goldman is modeling 200 kg, Dougherty 100 kg and Obscure 230 kg
  • Form & Useable %: Goldman and Obscure are rectangular and 100% and Dougherty is round and 80%
  • Average Screen Size: Goldman 13 square inches, Dougherty 11.27 square inches and Obscure 10.69 square inches

Base Case

Maximum Capacity (Goldman 120m, Dougherty 89m and Obscure 310m)

Capacity Base case

Scenario #1 (Align Boule size and Relative Screen Thickness)

Maximum Capacity (Goldman 185m, Dougherty 223m and Obscure 270m)

Capacity Base scenario 1

Scenario #2 (Align Boule size, Relative Screen thickness and Form)

Maximum Capacity (Goldman 185m, Dougherty 223m and Obscure 270m)

Capacity Base scenario 2

Scenario #3 (Max Boule size, Relative Screen Thickness and Form)

Maximum Capacity (Goldman 212m, Dougherty 256m and Obscure 310m)

Capacity Base scenario 3

 

Conclusion:

GTAT’s CEO informed investors during the conference call that Apple would be fully utilizing the sapphire being produced by GTAT.  Currently Goldman Sachs and Dougherty Group are estimating that GTAT will sell nearly 100% of its annual sapphire capacity to Apple, but at a clip of only $1 billion per year or approximately $10 ASP based on 100 million units sold.   Goldman and Dougherty have $0 of revenue built-in for Apple’s iWatch.

There are several key data points that are used to calculate the capacity of the Mesa, AZ sapphire plant and there are drastic differences between Goldman Sachs and Dougherty Group capacity models.  Goldman Sachs’s boule size is twice the size of the boule used by Dougherty, but when it comes to sapphire screen thickness estimations Goldman’s estimated screen thickness was nearly twice as thick as Dougherty.

I ran three different estimation scenarios in an effort to modify the data outliers and to better align the peer group to come up with a better consensus of  the estimated sapphire capacity of the Mesa, AZ plant.  The boule size in Dougherty’s model (100 kg) is less than half of what should be used (200 kg+).  Additionally, the sapphire cover thickness estimated by Goldman Sachs is likely over estimated by 40% or more.  The form factor (round) used by Dougherty should be replaced by a rectangular boule form, which would lead an increase in the useable sapphire percentage in the company’s model.  The results of the scenario modeling (scenario #2)  indicate that the maximum annual capacity of the Mesa, AZ sapphire plant is likely between 185m and 270m sapphire screens or $1.85B billion and $2.7 billion of annual revenue assuming a $10 ASP.

I am currently estimating that the Mesa, AZ sapphire plant at full annually capacity can produce 310m of annual screens or $3.1B of annual revenue, however I am only estimating $2.2B of revenue or a 71% conversion rate in my 2015 estimates.  The major upside that has not been priced into GTAT’s share price is the fact that the Wall Street analysts have grossly under estimated the annual sapphire capacity of the Mesa, AZ plant.  The difference is worth $20+ of additional share value if Apple not only produces a sapphire cover screen for the iPhone 6 but also for the iWatch in 2014.  If Apple produces sapphire cover screens for both the iWatch and the iPhone it will result in annual Apple revenue, that will be closer to$2 billion versus the $1 billion estimated by the Wall Street analysts in 2015.   If GTAT generates $2 billion of annual revenue from Apple beginning in 2015 it will result in base EPS of $2.00+ for 2015, 2016 and beyond.

There is only one question remains unanswered.  Whose “analytics” hold more water, the Wall Street analysts or the Obscure Analyst?   The right decision may make you a lot of money!

 

I am long GTAT